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Thread: Crusade loot is shit ucool i fuck yo mamas

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady-E View Post
    I get good item in 1st chest from let's say 80% of the time
    60-of-the-time-it-works-every-time-quote-1.jpg

    Confirmed.

  2. #17
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    After the last "improvement" in crusade loot things got shit.as for gc loot it does seem that good loot has less chances of showing

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady-E View Post
    You can't possibly think that you don't have equal 25% chance on getting an item from each chest? LOL
    As I said on your own thread about that "issue" it's only your bad luck. I get good item in 1st chest from let's say 80% of the time
    OK, so let's go. I'm not working with personal opinions over this, instead, facts.
    I did it, in a very simple way, with lots of samples and it gives you, including sampling error something around 15% of chance on getting the round's best item. This is way beyond 25%. This is proven not being bad luck. 5 years of engineering are useful on finding how things work, specially when it is possible to apply math in order to figure and model any given system.

    When I say you get 99% of BS, it's beacause you only get possibly worthy rewards in 20% of the rounds, and amongst them, 50% do not give you anything really useful.
    15%*20%*50% = 0.15% just to exemplify. 1-0.15% = 98.5%, rounding you have 99%.

    When you analyze the data collected, you will see this. Try it by yourself. I did many samples since the thread I opened, compared before and after that patch that supposedly would make it better, but it's all the same thing.
    Due to my lack of time I didn't compilate in a report form to show everybody here.
    And BTW, this is confirmed by other guildies.

    Perhaps it may be somehow linked to your VIP level. Didn't get data to look for it.

    Ucool's dishonest company - it's proven how much they disrespect and focus only in money above ethics and do commit crimes against customers.

    And they're not the only ones. I play Spirit Guardian, and they have some issues like that in a mode that you can get rewards with shuffled cards, and pay diamods to flip the next one. FIFA Soccer that manipulates through scripting the outcome of the matches in order to put the users in an emotional rollercoaster which may lead to spend more money, believing that this will make them win, and yes it makes them beat better players.
    Gaming industry, in determinate companies is making me feel sick.

  4. #19
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    Everything under a couple of several thousands sample data proves nothing...

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    Everything under a couple of several thousands sample data proves nothing...
    Just like when national election polls come out and you look at the fine print; they only polled 1000 people.

    Poll or collect 1 million times, and then you will get the real picture.
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  6. #21
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    I agree drops could be better. A+ for rhetoric op. You are a true poet.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    Everything under a couple of several thousands sample data proves nothing...
    Specially when you get someone guessing to prove a point without using any scientific method to prove
    Not being sarcastic, or whatever, but study statistics b4 talking such a comment.
    Depending on various factors you will have a greater or a lesser error margin. Include this in your result that the tendency will prove the facts via statistical behaviour.

    Check out about Zika virus, that was proven through statistics to cause microcephalia.

    Ppl here seem to like to defend uncool... I wonder that eventually those are guys that work 4 them...
    Let's stick with the truth and help defend the gamers, who are the reason of this game's existance. Specially when the company looks like don't caring for their customers.

  8. #23
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    It is nothing about defending,I agree for example the items that are available are crap often. Got Wind dagger and Ancient runes in Tier 35 and another wind dagger before, or an Axe or something else I have plenty
    But I know enough about statistics and probability calculations that looking at some hundred cases of you alone means nothing.

    You've heard here from some, I tell you it's for me like that and I see it daily in our guild chat. People get the item they want quite often first try. Much more often then your theory would allow that. I checked last week. 4 of 7 days I got what I wanted first try. 2 in second and last didn't bother to open another chest.
    And In theory you could need 4 tries everyday for weeks and I could get same every day in same time first try. Chances are little, but it could be, that's why only a large qty of sample brings you near to a relevant statistic.

    You just need to look at crusade. There are people that got a lot of red gear already. Others almost nothing or even nothing over weeks. So ofc chances there are much smaller as 25% but you see on that differences that looking at a limited amount just gives irrelevant data.
    As if we could assume chance is same for everyone, just looking at crusade for some months of each individual would most likely result in lot of different probability chances

  9. #24
    Silver Member Contributor Level 5 max1988's Avatar
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    already 3 months without orange items
    IOS RIP

  10. #25
    Prime Leader Contributor Level 11 Lady-E's Avatar
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    omg @igordvr it's way to long post so not even gonna quote it but I have one thing to say for you - you have way much free time when you actually occupy and do such useless calculations. And fyi I don't need to do them, I see what I get from examples during last few months and as I said the item I aim to get is around 80% of the time in first chest I open. I'm not discussing how good everything in GC loot is, I'm discussing how often can you get main item from first try, that's it. And something else for you that worked for a while and not sue dos it still work, didn't test it - if you get good item from first tier (ss or 5x good frags) in next tier you open 2nd chest from the one you opened on previous tier and you get good item again. Why? No idea, I don't care...someone else who had too much time on their hand figured out that scheme too so I just applied it and it worked most of the time. Unlike you I don't need science for such a dumb reason to argue about, when people are imagining things they do wonders to prove they're right don't you know that? Of course if you see only one pattern you'll at some point develop a theory how that pattern works but point is not everyone else has that same pattern and there is too much people to know how it actually works for all. And discussing how good are total awards in GC is just dumb cause it's their choice, take it or leave it, no one argues that. Point is how often you can get bet item on tier from first chest, that was what you argued about before but now looks like you made a science of it lol don't waste your time cause you're way to wrong as there is no chance you can have enough data to do actual calculation about that so let it go, would be a smarter thing to do, but your choice, you can make as much as you want theories and patterns but fact is you don't know enough facts to make actual statements. I object your point cause my situation is clearly completely different and yet your reply to me is explaining your own point of you as an actual facts even I stated clearly different example from yours?!Your theory applies to your pattern not to pattern for everyone else you should accept that. And as another proof contrary to your theory today again on 5th tier force of gods from 1st try. How good is it or how much I have of them is not the point, point is I haven't spend any gems to get it. Other 4 tiers, I got ss from 3 and 5x orange fragment from 1, so I can clearly say I got 5/5 from first chest I opened, I guess you have a good explanation for that too lol
    And yes long post requires long reply too unfortunately lol

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady-E View Post
    omg @igordvr it's way to long post so not even gonna quote it but I have one thing to say for you - you have way much free time when you actually occupy and do such useless calculations. And fyi I don't need to do them, I see what I get from examples during last few months and as I said the item I aim to get is around 80% of the time in first chest I open. I'm not discussing how good everything in GC loot is, I'm discussing how often can you get main item from first try, that's it. And something else for you that worked for a while and not sue dos it still work, didn't test it - if you get good item from first tier (ss or 5x good frags) in next tier you open 2nd chest from the one you opened on previous tier and you get good item again. Why? No idea, I don't care...someone else who had too much time on their hand figured out that scheme too so I just applied it and it worked most of the time. Unlike you I don't need science for such a dumb reason to argue about, when people are imagining things they do wonders to prove they're right don't you know that? Of course if you see only one pattern you'll at some point develop a theory how that pattern works but point is not everyone else has that same pattern and there is too much people to know how it actually works for all. And discussing how good are total awards in GC is just dumb cause it's their choice, take it or leave it, no one argues that. Point is how often you can get bet item on tier from first chest, that was what you argued about before but now looks like you made a science of it lol don't waste your time cause you're way to wrong as there is no chance you can have enough data to do actual calculation about that so let it go, would be a smarter thing to do, but your choice, you can make as much as you want theories and patterns but fact is you don't know enough facts to make actual statements. I object your point cause my situation is clearly completely different and yet your reply to me is explaining your own point of you as an actual facts even I stated clearly different example from yours?!Your theory applies to your pattern not to pattern for everyone else you should accept that. And as another proof contrary to your theory today again on 5th tier force of gods from 1st try. How good is it or how much I have of them is not the point, point is I haven't spend any gems to get it. Other 4 tiers, I got ss from 3 and 5x orange fragment from 1, so I can clearly say I got 5/5 from first chest I opened, I guess you have a good explanation for that too lol
    And yes long post requires long reply too unfortunately lol
    Tldr; i havent gotten an item ive needed in over a month that i couldnt farm in a day. (excluding shit lv1s could use)

  12. #27
    Platinum Member Contributor Level 8 Sarafina's Avatar
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    This thread is about CRUSADE not grand challenge...

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    It is nothing about defending,I agree for example the items that are available are crap often. Got Wind dagger and Ancient runes in Tier 35 and another wind dagger before, or an Axe or something else I have plenty
    But I know enough about statistics and probability calculations that looking at some hundred cases of you alone means nothing.

    You've heard here from some, I tell you it's for me like that and I see it daily in our guild chat. People get the item they want quite often first try. Much more often then your theory would allow that. I checked last week. 4 of 7 days I got what I wanted first try. 2 in second and last didn't bother to open another chest.
    And In theory you could need 4 tries everyday for weeks and I could get same every day in same time first try. Chances are little, but it could be, that's why only a large qty of sample brings you near to a relevant statistic.

    You just need to look at crusade. There are people that got a lot of red gear already. Others almost nothing or even nothing over weeks. So ofc chances there are much smaller as 25% but you see on that differences that looking at a limited amount just gives irrelevant data.
    As if we could assume chance is same for everyone, just looking at crusade for some months of each individual would most likely result in lot of different probability chances
    Well, I sampled 10 weeks - 350 samples. This is gives you an irrelevant error margin (in theory - don't know how behaves with high VIP, since I'm 5. BTW what VIP are you in?).
    Just remember, I'm talking about GC, since in crusade there is no decieve, we already know that the rewards suck, and almost everybody does it just for the coins.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady-E View Post
    omg @igordvr it's way to long post so not even gonna quote it but I have one thing to say for you - you have way much free time when you actually occupy and do such useless calculations. And fyi I don't need to do them, I see what I get from examples during last few months and as I said the item I aim to get is around 80% of the time in first chest I open. I'm not discussing how good everything in GC loot is, I'm discussing how often can you get main item from first try, that's it. And something else for you that worked for a while and not sue dos it still work, didn't test it - if you get good item from first tier (ss or 5x good frags) in next tier you open 2nd chest from the one you opened on previous tier and you get good item again. Why? No idea, I don't care...someone else who had too much time on their hand figured out that scheme too so I just applied it and it worked most of the time. Unlike you I don't need science for such a dumb reason to argue about, when people are imagining things they do wonders to prove they're right don't you know that? Of course if you see only one pattern you'll at some point develop a theory how that pattern works but point is not everyone else has that same pattern and there is too much people to know how it actually works for all. And discussing how good are total awards in GC is just dumb cause it's their choice, take it or leave it, no one argues that. Point is how often you can get bet item on tier from first chest, that was what you argued about before but now looks like you made a science of it lol don't waste your time cause you're way to wrong as there is no chance you can have enough data to do actual calculation about that so let it go, would be a smarter thing to do, but your choice, you can make as much as you want theories and patterns but fact is you don't know enough facts to make actual statements. I object your point cause my situation is clearly completely different and yet your reply to me is explaining your own point of you as an actual facts even I stated clearly different example from yours?!Your theory applies to your pattern not to pattern for everyone else you should accept that. And as another proof contrary to your theory today again on 5th tier force of gods from 1st try. How good is it or how much I have of them is not the point, point is I haven't spend any gems to get it. Other 4 tiers, I got ss from 3 and 5x orange fragment from 1, so I can clearly say I got 5/5 from first chest I opened, I guess you have a good explanation for that too lol
    And yes long post requires long reply too unfortunately lol
    No worries, sometimes a complex subject requires long texts
    Actually I do not have a lot of free time. I just made it simple, and put it all on excel, that automatically calculates everything you need to know. This is basics of statistics, and MS Excel features these functions all built in - you just need to have the knowledge on stats to interpret correctly and know how to use the tool.

    OK, you don't need to know, but it'd be interesting.

    I didn't developed any theory, I just showed. It's hard to argue math, Lady.
    Perhaps my theory applies to me (VIP5) what VIP lvl are you? YOu never know coming form ucool...

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by igordvr View Post
    No worries, sometimes a complex subject requires long texts
    Actually I do not have a lot of free time. I just made it simple, and put it all on excel, that automatically calculates everything you need to know. This is basics of statistics, and MS Excel features these functions all built in - you just need to have the knowledge on stats to interpret correctly and know how to use the tool.

    OK, you don't need to know, but it'd be interesting.

    I didn't developed any theory, I just showed. It's hard to argue math, Lady.
    Perhaps my theory applies to me (VIP5) what VIP lvl are you? YOu never know coming form ucool...
    What type of statistics are you using? I don't think it's that easy.
    1- You need to know the type of distribution, is it normal or uniform or ...
    2- Probability of next drop, is it dependent or not.
    3- I still think the sample size is small.

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